Mars Colonization: The Future or a HOAX?

As humans gradually overcome the technological challenges of deep space missions, the possibility of exploration and colonization of extraterrestrial outposts is being seriously considered by space agencies and commercial entities alike. But should we do it just because we potentially can? if it is, do we have a system of instruments necessary to effectively and fairly manage these aspects of colonization?

Mars: Among other potential outposts, the Red Planet has always been shrouded by a veil of romanticism and strangeness. Beyond an active target for space exploration, colonization of Mars has become a popular topic nowadays, fuelled by a potentially naive and somewhat questionable belief that this planet could at some point in time be terraformed to sustain human life. Indeed, the Moon, while very close, is small, barren and devoid of atmosphere. Life on the Moonbase would not differ from that in the lifeless desert, with no hope of ever finding water. Other neighbouring planets, such as hot Venus and gas giants Jupiter and Saturn, are no more suitable for human habitation.

Mars, however, is a different case whatsoever. With a mean radius of 0.53 of that of Earth, i.e., a surface area nearly equal to the total area of dry land on our planet, and 0.38 of Earth's surface gravity, Mars is thought to provide a potentially much more helpful environment for the colonists from Earth compared to any other proximate planet. Moreover, promising results obtained by rovers and a low-frequency radar installed on the Mars Express spacecraft have long sustained the belief that it might be possible to find undersurface and subglacial liquid water. Furthermore, similar to Earth, Mars is expected to have substantial mineral resources at and under its surface layer, with recently confirmed evidence of metal ores and other vital mineral substances. Although no one has seriously demonstrated a practical means for the extraction and refining of these resources into useful products on Mars, a distant possibility of doing so is considered a principal point in favour of colonization. These features of the Red Planet have firmly cemented its status as an ultimate space colonization destination for the near future, despite the obvious immediate challenges such as a dusty carbon dioxide-rich atmosphere, the pressure of which is reaching only 0.09 atm.

Intense efforts by the world's space agencies and more recently, private enterprises have brought us ever closer to having broad technical capabilities to transport a small number of colonizers and equipment to Mars. These capabilities have been discussed in detail in several comprehensive reviews and opinion articles that describe various opportunities and challenges facing the Mars settlement program. Defenders of Mars colonization consider present space technology as nearing the stage when it will be able to provide the necessary level of reliability and efficiency required for the one way journey from Earth to Mars. Indeed, a recent example of the successful firing of thrusters on Voyager 1 after 37 years of space operation attests to our ability to overcome such significant challenges of spacecraft development as longevity, reliability, and operational readiness decades after launching. Ongoing advances in nanotechnology and materials engineering enhanced reliability and expanded functionality of contemporary electronics and robotics while reducing device mass, volume, and power consumption. The affordability of small space assets has enabled greater exploration of space, allowing space agencies, universities, and commercial players to collect vital information about extraterrestrial environments in which space assets and the living subjects will be required to operate, guiding and informing the development of colonization programs.

Is it time to go extra-terrestrial?

Mars One program has been operating since 2012 and, considering the present level of financial and public support, it is very likely to continue. Falcon Heavy, presently the world's most powerful rocket capable of delivering about 17 tons to Mars surface, was successfully launched on 6 February 2018, demonstrating its capacity to deliver payloads within the framework of the Mars One program. In parallel, efforts are made to develop plausible geodynamic scenarios and define relevant parameters, including ambitious ideas of future Mars terraforming. Materials suited for Mars-oriented applications and operating environments are also under active development. Technical aspects of these projects are described in numerous roadmaps and system architecture description documents. To some, these developments provide confidence that it will indeed be possible to begin colonization of Mars within our lifetime, at least from a technological point of view. And there is certainly no lack of volunteers keen to take on the challenge of a 7 month long one-way journey to the Red Planet. Indeed, since Mars One's call, thousands have applied and about 100 have been preselected as potential candidates to make up the first crew of four astronauts to be sent to Mars in 2031.

Upon reaching the surface, the astronauts will be expected to establish a permanent settlement on Mars, collecting vital data and conducting experiments, with the clear expectation never to return to Earth again

Settlement of Mars?

From scientific publications to public forms, there is certainly little consensus on whether colonization of Mars is necessary or even possible, with a rich diversity of opinions that range from categorical It is a necessity! to equally categorical Should Humans Colonize Other Planets? No. A strong proponent of the idea, Orwig puts forward five reasons for Mars colonization, implicitly stating that establishing a permanent colony of humans on Mars is no longer an option but a real necessity.

Specifically, these arguments are:

1. Survival of humans as a species;

2. Exploring the potential of life on Mars to sustain humans;

3. Using space technology to positively contribute to our quality of life, from health to minimizing and reversing negative aspects of the anthropogenic activity of humans on Earth;

4. Developing as a species;

5. Gaining political and economic leadership.

The essence of what most space colonization proponents feel—our ever-growing environmental footprint threatens the survival of the human race on Earth. Indeed, a large body of evidence points to human activity as the main cause of the extinction of many species, with shrinking biodiversity and depleting resources threatening the very survival of humans on this planet. Colonization of other planets could potentially increase the probability of our survival.

While being at the core of such ambitious projects like Mars One, a self-sustained colony of any size on Mars is hardly feasible in the foreseeable future. Indeed, sustaining even a small number of colonists would require a continuous supply of food, oxygen, water and basic materials. At this stage, it is not clear whether it would be possible to establish a system that would generate these resources locally, or whether it would at least in part rely on the delivery of these resources (or essential components necessary for their local production) from Earth. Beyond the supply of these very basic resources, it would be quite challenging if not impossible for the colonists to independently produce hi-tech but vitally important assets such as medicines, electronics and robotics systems, or advanced materials that provide us with a decent quality of life. In this case, would their existence become little more than the jogtrot of life, as compared with the standards expected at the Earth?

In order to deliver any positive change to the quality of life of humans on Earth, the question of Mars colonization should not only be about survival but also about development if it is to present a viable alternative to our current existence. Such development is inherently linked to the availability of local resources required to sustain life, which is in turn reliant on the availability of instrumentation and equipment necessary for their discovery, extraction and refining. There is little doubt that in the early stages of Mars colonization, the greatest fraction of the payload delivered to Mars will be dedicated to the equipment needed to provide critical infrastructure and sustain the most fundamental needs of the colony, and not scientific instruments for greater Mars exploration. However, it should be noted that with recent advancements in miniaturized, energy-efficient electronic and robotics devices, it may in principle be possible to deliver a highly functional yet compact automated laboratory to Mars. A recent breakthrough discovery of (possible) ancient “building blocks of life” made by the Curiosity rover greatly supports this notion. Where Curiosity accommodates only 6.8 kg of scientific instruments, the scientific capabilities of a high-tech laboratory delivered by one of Mars One landing units solely dedicated to such a mission could be quite considerable.

Mars colonization is an opportunity for humans to grow as a civilization, actively changing the way in which we interact with and exploit our environment. Indeed, in this aspect, we can (following Pyne) consider Mars colonization as a kind of cultural invention.. Looking back to the Age of Exploration, could the exploration of near-Earth space together with the Mars and Moon colonization be judged as an unavoidable and intuitive continuation of processes started at the dawn of human civilization? Some would argue so, “All of the space shuttles – and the ill-fated Mars rover, Beagle – were named after famous sea vessels.” To many, such a deep attachment to the rich history of nautical exploration certainly confirms this hypothesis.

At this point, it is not entirely clear what opportunities and challenges living on Mars will present, and how we as a species would respond to these, but there are certainly calls to embrace innovation and sustainability as the only means to ensure the quality of life for generations to come. Yet, who will oversee and enforce these ideals? Indeed, at its early stages of settlement, the small colony is likely to be composed of altruistic, selfless, technologically savvy individuals who may thrive in an equitable and libertarian society and may be prepared to sacrifice individual desires and benefits for the greater good of the group. However, it is far less likely that such a system can be sustained once the population of colonists grows to thousands and millions and becomes more diverse. Inevitably, a socio-economic and political order will emerge, and it is likely to be different from the initial system. Would it be possible not to repeat mistakes that we have made when colonizing continents here on Earth?

As we race toward realizing technical aspects of Mars colonization, these and other questions certainly warrant further investigation and discussion. Should we spend a tremendous amount of intellectual, financial and material resources on a distant dream over addressing immediate and highly pressing problems that threaten our very existence on Earth? And is having the technological capacity to get there a good enough reason for colonization? In the remainder of this essay, we will briefly introduce a number of opinions on these issues from stakeholders and space science enthusiasts with diverse backgrounds.